Research on Economic Policy Uncertainty

Our Research

"Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty" (2016)

     -Replication Files:

     -Human Audit Files: Audit Analysis Files; Hard Copies of Audited Articles

     -Guide to Hand-Coding Newspaper Articles: Coding_Guide.pdf

     -2013 vintage (includes additional policy uncertainty measures): "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty" (2013)

"What Drives Large Stock Market Movements?" by Scott R. Baker, Nick Bloom, Steven J. Davis, and Marco Sammon (2021)

"Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic" by Dave Altig, Scott Baker, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Steven J. Davis, Julia Leather, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Paul Mizen, Nicholas Parker, Thomas Renault, Pawel Smietanka, Gregory Thwaites (2020)

"COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty" by Scott R. Baker, Nick Bloom, Steven J. Davis, and Stephen Terry (2020)

"Economic Uncertainty and the Recovery" by Jose Maria Barrero and Nicholas Bloom (2020)

"Elections, Political Polarization, and Economic Uncertainty" by Scott R. Baker, Aniket Baksy, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, andd Jonathan A. Rodden (2020)

"Using Disasters to Estimate the Impact of Uncertainty" by Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, and Stephen Terry (2020)

"The World Uncertainty Index" by Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom and Davide Furceri (2019)

"Policy News and Stock Market Volatility" by Scott R. Baker, Nick Bloom, Steven J. Davis and Kyle Kost (2019)

"Economic Policy Uncertainty in China Since 1949: The View from Mainland Newspapers" by Steven J Davis, Dingqian Liu, and Xuguang Sheng (2019)

"Rising Policy Uncertainty" by Steven J Davis (2017)

"Policy Uncertainty in Japan" by Elif C. Arbatli, Steven J. Davis, Arata Ito, Naoko Miake, Ikuo Saito (January 2022). Replication Package. Japanese-Language Website.

"An Index of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty" by Steven J. Davis (2016)

"Regulatory Complexity and Policy Uncertainty: Headwinds of Our Own Making" by Steven J. Davis (2017)

"Why Has U.S. Policy Uncertainty Risen Since 1960?" by Scott R Baker, , Nicholas Bloom, Brandice Canes-Wrone, Steven J. Davis, and Jonathan Rodden (2015)

     - Data

Our Commentary

"The distinctive character of policy-driven stock market jumps" (2021)

"Polarised elections raise economic uncertainty" (2020)

"Pandemic-Era Uncertainty on Main Street and Wall Street" (2020)

"Economic uncertainty in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic" (2020)

"COVID-induced economic uncertainty and its consequences" (2020)

"Trade policy is upending markets-but not investment" (2019)

"Policy Uncertainty in Japan" (2017)

"Higher Policy Uncertainty Could Be Bad News for Japan's Economy " (2017)

"What is Brexit-related uncertainty doing to United Kingdom growth? " (2016)

"Immigration fears and policy uncertainty" (2015)

"Presentation to G20 Central Bank Governors" (2015)

"The Dog that Barked " (2015)

"Higher policy uncertainty curbs business investment and employment growth " (2015)

"Policy Uncertainty Matters " (2014)

"Fluctuations in Uncertainty" (2014)

"Has Economic Policy Uncertainty Hampered the Recovery?" (2012)

"Economic recovery and policy uncertainty in the US " (2012)

"U.S. Election Analysis: Economic Recovery and Policy Uncertainty " (2012)

"The Rocky Balboa recovery " (2012)

"Policy uncertainty and the stalled recovery " (2011)

"Policy Uncertainty Is Choking Recovery" (2011)

Other Academic Work Using Our Data

Google Citations of 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty'

Central Bank Speeches, Congressional Testimony, and Government Reports

November 2019, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank, "The New Environment for Monetary Policy"

October 2019, IMF, "Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty"

October 2019, IMF, "Caught in Prolonged Uncertainty: Challenges and Opportunities"

October 2019, IMF, "Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers"

September 2019, Bank of England, "How has trade policy uncertainty affected the world economy"

August 2019, Mark Carney Speech, Jackson Hole Symposium, "The Growing Challenges for Monetary Policy in the current International Monetary and Financial System"

August 2019, St. Louis Federal Reserve, "A Sea Change in U.S. Monetary Policy"

July 2019, Indian Ministry of Finance, "Economic Survey 2018-2019"

April 2019, Asian Development Bank, "Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2019"

2 April 2019, St Louis Federal Reserve, "Does the Macroeconomy Float in Choppy Waters?"


6 July 2017, Stanley Fischer, "Government Policy and Labor Productivity"

16 February 2017, Congressional Testimony - Stan Veuger, "Policy Uncertainty and the Small Business Economy"

5 December 2016, Bank of England - Mark Carney, "The Spectre of Monetarism"

23 November 2016, Bank of England - Kristin Forbes, "Uncertainty about Uncertainty"

5 October 2016, New Zealand Reserve Bank - John McDermott, "Policy uncertainty from a central bank perspective"

30 June 2016, Bank of England - Mark Carney, "Uncertainty, the economy and policy"

30 September 2015, Progressive Policy Institute, "Business Investment in the United States: Facts, Explanations, Puzzles, and Policies"

27 May 2014, House Revenue Committee, "Stop-Gap Budget Options Put State on Wrong Path"

24 September 2013, Mark Zandi, The Impact of Political Uncertainty on Jobs and the Economy, Before the Senate Committee on Budget

24 September 2013, Chad Stone, Testimony of Chad Stone, Chief Economist, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Before the Senate Committee on Budget

24 April 2013, Kevin Hasset, Testimony to Congress

13 February 2013, Casey Mulligan, Testimony to Congress

22 January 2013, Simon Johnson, Testimony to Congress

31 August 2012, Ben Bernanke, Speech at Jackson Hole

20 September 2012, Olympia Snow, Presentation to the US Senate

20 September 2012, John Taylor, Testimony to Congress - Committee of Judiciary

10 July 2012, John Goodman, Testimony to Congress

18 April 2012, Aparna Mathur, Testimony to Congress