Europe Monthly Index

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Note: As of April 2014, we are no longer using Consensus Economics forecaster dispersion data and solely constructing indices based on newspaper articles. This has a limited impact upon our overall country-level series, with the old and the new index having a high correlation. For users interesting in comparing the historical performance of the two series, we will continue to supply forecaster dispersion and overall EPU index data up through April 2014 on this website.

To measure European policy-related economic uncertainty, we construct an index based on newspaper articles regarding policy uncertainty.

News coverage about policy-related economic uncertainty

We construct this index in a similar manner as our index based on American newspapers. Here we include 2 papers from each of the largest 5 European economies (Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Spain). The papers include El Pais, El Mundo, Corriere della Sera, La Repubblica, Le Monde, Le Figaro, the Financial Times, The Times of London, Handelsblatt, FAZ.

As with our American newspaper index, we utilize the number of news articles containing the terms uncertain or uncertainty, economic or economy, as well as policy relevant terms (scaled by the smoothed number of articles containing 'today'). Policy relevant terms include: 'policy', 'tax', 'spending', 'regulation', 'central bank', 'budget', and 'deficit'. All news searches are done in the native language of the paper in question.

Each paper-specific series is normalized to standard deviation 1 prior to 2011 and then summed. The series is normalized to mean 100 prior to 2011.